Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.334644 23.767414 27.940646 33.501062 40.900786 50.703297 65.226755
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 16.408209 20.380252 25.709254 33.718606 46.143286 66.150560 104.890399
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 14.288107 18.476376 24.487113 34.351215 51.630344 84.703664 169.422645
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.397408 16.434916 22.480669 32.994399 53.049898 96.884214 241.363510
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.251327 15.253240 21.483190 32.928952 56.697168 116.654182 389.695261
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.080351 13.857892 19.884712 31.359331 56.597787 127.271203 554.030948
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.008685 12.491883 18.134698 29.123829 54.217484 129.706204 700.752184
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.184016 11.436781 16.779736 27.402952 52.528231 133.593831 923.948990
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.377952 12.035858 18.351902 31.915822 68.715293 229.786647 12186.780879
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.185004 11.964028 18.700155 33.923794 79.451202 336.669763 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.593564 11.153013 17.554535 32.234473 77.422063 355.002151 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.375778 10.974156 17.603799 33.429763 86.315453 509.065013 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.981855 10.476721 17.019503 33.068126 89.894149 652.305076 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.657010 10.078679 16.593550 33.046607 95.181936 904.058155 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.417304 9.814502 16.408941 33.638722 104.007346 1477.996587 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.048050 9.282533 15.603914 32.321625 102.594849 1740.066456 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.809430 8.978249 15.254594 32.258003 108.059558 2817.077804 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 5.483656 8.489000 14.460920 30.735495 104.364698 3088.029055 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.133352 7.936449 13.492558 28.565139 95.985302 2573.634655 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.841445 7.482750 12.714927 26.892781 90.133701 2360.815888 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.991719 7.879349 13.839833 31.275405 126.404680 253761.192784 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.956834 7.913595 14.155509 33.222381 151.173467 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 4.718826 7.531925 13.467911 31.584498 143.363834 NaN NaN